I received this book written by Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar along with the rest of my classmates as a graduation gift from our administration. My initial thought was that these books were simply a surplus left over from a cancelled class but this didn't stop me from opening it up.

The title isn't exciting and the cover art even less inspiring, but I definitely found value in its content. The authors begin by discussing how Americans are obsessed with trying to analyze data to forecast the future but with little success. However, despite low accuracy there is still value to forecasting activities if business leaders can strategically manage the process to maximize opportunities and minimize risk.

They then move on to cite a number of examples of past predictions that were poor or missed by experts on the relevant subject before proposing their own approach for predictions. This process is comprised of drafting a list of future possibilities and quantifying them on a Four-Measures score. This approach shows some similarities to scenario analysis, but differs in that it uses a 10-point scale for each of the four measures of:

A Probability
B Timing
C Impact
D Action Potential

The higher the total score, the greater the greater the likelihood the prediction will hold true. This system does warrant a couple notes, which include the variation of the score depending on viewpoint (i.e. individual, company, government) and the recognition that the total score does not hold a definitive answer (i.e. an event with low probability should perhaps be taken into consideration given a crippling impact).

The book then explores a list of future possibilities to illustrate the use of the Four-Measures scale. The one I found most intriguing was a linked medical database that would allow doctors to type in characteristics of their patients and symptoms for comparing past cases to current to arrive at a final diagnosis. This would of course be supplementary to the doctor's own judgment but the likelihood as well as the applicability of such a database made a lot of sense.

Worth a read.